Friday, April 15, 2016

The #NoEstimates Game

Introduction

The #NoEstimates game is a group activity about the power of using data to forecast. It gives practitioners and stakeholders a better way to understand and allow for the effects of variation on their project planning efforts.

The game uses historical data about team performance to not only forecast the duration of a future project, but also uses the data to quantify the uncertainty around that forecast. This is a big step up from relying on a rule-of-thumb and an even bigger improvement on wishing that forecasts are exact!

This activity does not teach you everything that you need to know about #NoEstimates, but it does form an excellent jumping off point, with the simulation and surrounding discussion giving participants a real feel for the spirit of #NoEstimates.

Yes: dice-rolling will be part of the activity!

Once you've played the game, the next step is to start using the simple and convenient Skillfire project forecasting app on your actual projects. In fact, the #NoEstimates game doubles as training in the use of the app.

Please: If you want to use the output of the app to discuss project deadlines, don't just present the results to your stakeholders: play the game with them first!

Credits: This work derives from Adrian Fittolani's approach to Monte Carlo forecasting of projects. The Skillfire forecaster was a collaboration between myself and Tim Newbold.

Objectives

Participants will learn
  1. That uncertainty in project duration is unavoidable for any team (or process) that has variable output
  2. How to roughly estimate the degree of uncertainty for a new project based on historical data
  3. How to use the Skillfire project forecasting app and interpret its output
Bonus: Playing the game leads nicely into a broader discussion of the value and limitations of estimation and forecasting, and how other Agile and allied #NoEstimates techniques can be used to deliver value and coordinate effectively in the presence of uncertainty.

Duration

  • 20 to 45 minutes (depending on length of discussion)

Equipment

  • Whiteboard and markers
  • Lots of six-sided dice: one per participant
  • Each participant will need a pen and paper

Procedure

1. Introduce the Historical Data

In a typical #NoEstimates approach, rather than trying to estimate the size or duration of individual chunks of work (here we talk about stories, but these could be tasks, items, whatever) we assume an experienced, stable team that knows how to decompose work into small pieces

For those used to working in story points, this corresponds to a team that is skilled enough to split everything into (say) 1 to 3 point stories. At this point, perhaps we can stop bothering estimating, but have to keep slicing thinly. For those work in time-based estimation, a similar state of affairs is achieved when no item takes longer than (say) a person-day to complete. 

Now ...
Consider two teams, team P and team V. Both teams delivered their most recent project (both consisting of 48 stories) in 6 sprints, but that their delivery patterns differ significantly. 

Whiteboard

SprintTeam PTeam V
1
8
5
2
8
9
3
8
14
4
8
5
5
8
5
6
8
10
Total48 stories48 stories

Questions for the group / discussion

  1. Does your real-life team (or teams) resemble Team P or Team V?
  2. What are the full names of Team P and Team V? [Answer: Predictability and Variation.] 
  3. How does the degree of variability in output reflect internal team factors, external factors, and the nature of the team's work?

2. Back-of-the-envelope calculations

The next project has been estimated to require 80 stories for completion.
Scientists and Engineers often make calculations under simplifying assumptions on the back of an envelope. We can do that here.

Questions for the group / discussion

  1. How many sprints do you estimate that team P will take? Team V? [Just give a number.]
  2. What's the shortest and longest duration that you expect for each team?

Commentary

Under simple assumptions team P can be expected to keep delivering at 8 points per sprint and deliver in exactly 10 sprints. On average, team V will do the same, but could get lucky or unlucky. 

Most experienced practitioners will add some margin to an unbiased estimate such as these, say +/-30%. But this rather arbitrary, and does not reflect on the variability of the the team's delivery patterns.

Questions for the group / discussion

  1. If you ran this project for real, what factors could increase the actual project duration for either team?
  2. What  factors could decrease the duration?

Sample responses

Increase
  • External dependencies and delays
  • New stories emerge
  • Re-doing / re-working / iterating necessary
  • Change in technology
  • Change in team composition
  • Team members distracted / diverted / leave
  • Team members added late in the project
Decrease
  • Effective cutting of scope (some stories are cut)
  • Capable team members added early in the project
  • Shortcuts found

3. Play the game

Now we simulate a single sprint conducted by team V, first as a group, by rolling a single die.

E.g. rolling a 1 corresponds to a sprint in which 5 stories were delivered, a 2 implies 9, and so on.

Here's a complete simulation of an 80 point project:

Example: 8 and a bit sprints (call it 9) to deliver the project
Sprint 1: rolled 3, delivered 14, stories remaining 66
Sprint 2: rolled 2, delivered 9, stories remaining 57
Sprint 3: rolled 6, delivered 10, stories remaining 47
Sprint 4: rolled 4, delivered 5, stories remaining 42
Sprint 5: rolled 2, delivered 9, stories remaining 33
Sprint 6: rolled 5, delivered 5, stories remaining 28
Sprint 7: rolled 1, delivered 5, stories remaining 23
Sprint 8: rolled 3, delivered 14, stories remaining 9
Sprint 9: rolled 3, delivered 14, stories remaining -5

Distribute dice and get participants to roll a die, look up the result, and keep a running tally on the board to show how to simulate an entire project.

Now, have everyone play the game independently and note their own results. How many sprints does each simulation take?

Meanwhile draw up the beginnings of a chart for the class results on the board. [See next figure.] Have participants stack a dot for each of their games. About 30 simulations gives a nice visualisation of the distribution of sprint durations:



Here each dot corresponds to a single simulation's duration.

In the worst case, every sprint delivered 5 stories (which happened once). In the theoretically best case the team delivers 14 points every sprint (which didn't happen this time) and finishes in (just under) 6 sprints.

Empirically, we see that the likely delivery time is 10 to 13 sprints for team V, but it could be worse!

More formally: 
  • half the sprints take 12 or fewer sprints, making 12 the median result.
  • discarding the bottom 3 (10%) and top 3 (10%) results, we can forecast that the project should take between 10 and 13 sprints with 80% confidence. [But we really should run a lot more simulations to stabilise the distribution.]

To be really safe we need to assign 16 sprints, but a better strategy would be to make sure we're delivering stories in priority-order and start de-scoping if things are going slowly or especially if the last few stories just aren't that valuable.

4. The Cumulative Distribution

An alternative way to read off the median and a confidence range is via the cumulative distribution. We obtain this by adding dots as we move to the right (cumulating).



You can attempt to draw this on the whiteboard, but be sure to rescale. I usually just sketch the idea before moving on to the Skillfire app.

5. The forecasting app

Now, for a stable forecast we really need a lot more than than 30 simulations, so let's switch from dice to computer-based random-number generation and conduct 10,000 trials with the Skillfire project forecasting app: skillfire.co/project-forecaster



Just enter team V's historical data and the estimate for the new project size, press Simulate, and the app does the rest. The continuous graph is acheived by counting a partial sprint at the end, but otherwise this is simply what you would get if you sat around rolling a lot of dice.



Notice that the Median has shifted back down to 10 sprints (30 rolls was insufficient!) and the confidence interval is now set to 90% rather than 80%.

A great use of this tool is to help explain why further analysis or discovery won't eliminate uncertainty if team output is variable.

While we used six sprints of historical data for convenience (sides on a die), when using the app there's no need to restrict yourself to just six sprints of data.

6. Closing

Be sure to re-cap: we now have the technology to quantify uncertainty based on history, but this is only part of the conversation. Recall all the different ways project duration can get inflated (and the few by which it gets shortened!)

Remember: don't just use the app and present the results: play the game with colleagues and stakeholders first.

Let me know how you go!

More Q & A

Q: Where can I find out more about #NoEstimates?
A: Start by reading this interview with Neil Killick.

Q: Can I measure story points and use this as an #Estimates technique instead?
A: Absolutely. You can even try both!

Q: If scope typically increases by 20%, how do I factor that in?
A: Run simulations with inflated number of stories and report both.

Q: What else can I do with a lot of dice?
A: Play Tenzi! A standard Tenzi set comes with lots of dice.

Q: Can you show more simulations
A: Sure ...

Game 2: 7 sprints exactly (fast delivery)

Sprint 1: rolled 6, delivered 10, stories remaining 70
Sprint 2: rolled 6, delivered 10, stories remaining 60
Sprint 3: rolled 3, delivered 14, stories remaining 46
Sprint 4: rolled 3, delivered 14, stories remaining 32
Sprint 5: rolled 3, delivered 14, stories remaining 18
Sprint 6: rolled 2, delivered 9, stories remaining 9
Sprint 7: rolled 2, delivered 9, stories remaining 0

Game 3: 11 sprints (slower delivery)
Sprint 1: rolled 2, delivered 9, stories remaining 71
Sprint 2: rolled 6, delivered 10, stories remaining 61
Sprint 3: rolled 1, delivered 5, stories remaining 56
Sprint 4: rolled 6, delivered 10, stories remaining 46
Sprint 5: rolled 5, delivered 5, stories remaining 41
Sprint 6: rolled 6, delivered 10, stories remaining 31
Sprint 7: rolled 2, delivered 9, stories remaining 22
Sprint 8: rolled 2, delivered 9, stories remaining 13
Sprint 9: rolled 1, delivered 5, stories remaining 8
Sprint 10: rolled 1, delivered 5, stories remaining 3
Sprint 11: rolled 2, delivered 9, stories remaining -6


Sunday, September 6, 2015

Agile Lessons from the Martial Arts

My talk — Agile Lessons from the Martial Arts — delivered at LAST (Lean Agile Systems Thinking) Conference  2015.

You can read about my martial arts background here.

Slides


Notes

Here's the scoop, 10 lessons I've learned from the martial arts that apply to Agile practice and coaching in the business world.

In the session I largely present the martial arts side and ask the audience to draw parallels with Agile practice and coaching. Here I spell it out.

1. Trust is about relationship

"The martial arts begin with trust."

In jiu-jitsu (and other martial arts) we practice dangerous techniques: throws, arm-locks, strangles, kicks and punches. Without cooperation and trust the risk of injury would make it impossible to train safely and effectively. If we injure our training partners by breaking their limbs, dislocating joints, or dropping them on their heads we would have no-one to train with next week, to say nothing of the fallout of shattered relationships and the expense and indignity of law-suits!

In business settings I've observed that people operate principally with one of two definitions of trust.
  1. Trust as predictability: e.g. if you say you'll do something, you'll do it; if you say you can do something, that means you have that capability, etc.
  2. Trust as relationship: I can trust you not to "stab me in the back", because it is understood that by looking out for each other we we'll jointly benefit.
* * *

It's the second kind of trust that I value, and helps lay the foundation for high performance teams. The first kind (predictability), in my view, is really just professional courtesy and competence.

Without real trust you'll always being wasting energy watching your back.

2. Ritual and respect 

The Japanese martial arts are rife with ritual. One bows when one first greets one's instructor, when entering the dojo (training hall), when getting onto the training mat, when leaving the training mat, before working with a new partner, after finishing with a training partner. As part of the opening and closing ceremonies we get down on our knees and bow repeatedly: to a place of honour (symbolising the art, and previous generations of instructors and students), to the instructor, and to each other.

All this bowing and kneeling acts in part to put us in a humble mood. It reminds us of how much we owe our teachers and predecessors for sharing their knowledge, and each other for joining us in the act of training and study.

It is also reassuring. We sanctify the training hall by repeated ritual, and thereby turn it into a place of sanctuary, where we can leave our every-day stresses and troubles at the door and engage in cooperative and mutually beneficial activity.

* * *

In the very popular Agile practice of the daily stand-up (for example) we similarly engage in repeated, somewhat repetitive behaviour-with-a-purpose. As with the opening ceremony before starting a session of martial arts, we engage with each other in a place (often at a Scrum or Kanban wall) and ready ourselves to work together.

Having a team "space" also taps into something very human. It gives a sense of familiarity and safety amid the hubbub and unpredictability.

By practicing respect and courtesy you reinforce an excellent habit: paying attention and listening to other people. People who are overly arrogant tend to talk a lot and manipulate others. For me, listening and engaging is the superior approach.

3. The journey to mastery is like climbing a staircase 

When I started learning martial arts I apologised to my instructor about my lack of coordination: I regarded myself as a clumsy person. To his eternal credit he basically ignored my comment and told me to stick with the exercise.

This is the genius of Shu, the first phase of learning. Shu means, roughly, "learn the rules".

The way I learned the fundamentals of jiu-jitsu is so brilliantly structured and taught that as long as you "get with program", you will learn and develop a base level of competence. As a student all you need is an open mind, persistence, and self-belief.

Not everyone has these: if you think you already know better, how can you learn something new?

An open mind: Empty your cup
A master was trying to explain something to a student. Now this student was not a brand new student, but a senior student who had learned many things. He had knowledge and experience aplenty to draw upon. But each time the master tried to explain something new to the student, the student kept trying to hold it up against his own notions of the way the world is and how it ought be, and he was unable to see the lessons in what the master was trying to teach him.

Finally, the master poured a full serving of tea into his own cup, and into the cup of the student. Then he told the student he wanted to give to him some of the tea from his own cup. He began pouring tea from his cup into the student's cup, but the student's cup was already full, and all the tea from the master's cup spilled out over the cup onto the surface below.

The student said, "Master, you can't pour anything into my cup until I empty it to make room for what you are trying to give me.", and the master replied "Yes, I know. And I can't give you any new thoughts or ideas or perspectives on life's lessons until you clear out some thoughts that are already teeming in your mind to make room for what I have to teach you." 
Then the master paused for a brief moment, meeting the student's eyes with his own knowing look and calmly but sternly said: "If you truly seek understanding, then first, empty your cup!"

Patience 
When you attempt something new, either you experience immediate success, or not. For complex skills this initial experience is in no way the whole story.

Those who get off to a fast start, typically fall back to earth quickly, then has to work hard to recapture that success, and then hit a plateau before climbing to the next level:


The other possibility is that there is no immediate success: the initial experience starts with the plateau:


Interestingly, the slow-starters often do better in the long haul, because inner determination has been established from the outset. Shades of the tortoise and the hare.

Persistence
The long haul journey to mastery is a lot like climbing a very long stair-case. Periods of progress alternate with plateaus.


If you mistake that first plateau for "the point of diminishing returns", you'll never break through to higher levels of achievement.

All of this came as quite a contrast to how I had learned growing up. It seems to me that in western culture we over-subscribe to the myth of talent: one is encouraged to persist with whatever one shows initial promise in. We get excited when we find "prodigies", and too-often over-praise them for their precocious gifts rather than hard work.

Martial arts taught me that this is a shallow perspective. By dint of genetics or previous experience some things come easily. That's mainly luck. When you climb the stairway to mastery through long dedication, that's really earned.

The literal translation of kung fu is not specific to the martial arts. It means "Skill achieved through hard work".

* * *

I perceive an irony in the modern business world. On the one hand, because of the pace of change and competitiveness, Agile and Lean approaches are in demand to raise quality and crush delivery time-frames. But, the mastery of these ways of working is a long journey that cannot be rushed.

So my mental model of learning and teaching (above) helps me to gauge where an individual, team, or organisation is on the journey, and I vary my practice accordingly.

4. Weakness becomes strength

What does it feel like to experience one of these plateaus?

After trying a few martial arts at University I stuck with jiu-jitsu because I was able to progress. Not on a continuous upward climb mind you. The trick was that we studied many inter-related techniques, concurrently, and while I was not visibly improving on several fronts, we would nevertheless keep practicing, and there was some sense of accomplishment with some of the techniques, while there was the opportunity to keep coming back to the ones that posed difficulties.

The trick is to just do the work and not be self-judging, and to trust the system and the judgement of your instructor that you will progress. Worrying or judging yourself is a waste of energy. The trick is doing less, not more.

That said, when I started there was a particular technique, a hip throw with many moving parts and details, that was my "worst technique". Some techniques came intuitively, others I was able to get working with instruction and feedback, and then gradually smooth off, but this one felt really clunky. I felt like I was faking it.

But I kept coming back to this technique. The system of learning made it unavoidable. So for two years I practiced it, thought about it, took it to pieces, and it still felt clunky. But when it *finally* clicked I knew its details and nuances better than any other technique. 

Today it is one of my favourite techniques, and when I teach it my students tend to do it rather well. By spending so much time on the plateau I learned how to teach it better than the techniques that come easily!

* * *

Don't think that it is only the things that came to you easily that have value. Sure, your strengths may be valuable in execution, but when it comes to mentoring these may only serve as inspiration. If you've ever struggled to master something you probably have much more to offer aspirants when coaching that same skill. 

For things that came easily to me it's always harder to teach: I have to reverse-engineer and experiment to get results, and I never have the same empathy when it comes to teaching others because I walked a very different, easier path.

Faced with a difficult challenge, I look first for multiple approaches, look to take small steps, strive to be patient yet persistent, and chip away on more than one front.

5. How to teach

My experience at high-school was that the best teachers taught to the "middle" of the cohort and tried to do a bit to help the "gifted" and the laggards. Accordingly I stuck with the subjects that I excelled in, but didn't expect much from the teachers, and turned to my own ingenuity and the course material.

In the martial arts I have learned a far better system, incorporating both mastery learning, spiral learning, and learning by teaching.

I have touched on mastery learning and spiral learning already without saying so.

In mastery learning you do not progress to higher levels until you have mastered the existing material at a reasonably high level of proficiency. Instead of grading people on a curve and promoting by age cohort, students are tested for promotion to the next belt when they are ready. People learn at different rates, and some train more intensively than others at different times. We're not on a schedule.

Spiral learning is the circling back through material to achieve greater depth, not getting stuck, but not allowing avoidance of areas of difficulty either.

We also learn by teaching. In a typical jiu-jitsu class the instructor will demonstrate a technique by (for example) throwing a senior student and explaining key points. Then the class breaks into pairs and they practice together, taking turns to throw (or whatever) or be thrown. If there is a more experienced person in the pair, they can effectively give one-on-one instruction. This helps the senior clarify their understanding, while the junior gets personalised practice. Experienced peers will do more exploratory work around the technique.

Can you see how this approach allows people of varying standards and experience to learn without "streaming", teaches life-skills, and helps the students who are btoh above and below the middle standard to improve?

* * *

I believe that these approaches have great relevance in the workplace. One can coach intensively for mastery by focussing on particular practices or principles, and spiral back to things that didn't take root repeatedly.

When team members mentor each other is also remarkably powerful, and is one way to help fuse a "group of workers" into a team. Pair-programming is a par excellence example of this in an Agile setting.

Colleagues can learn together and from each other. We need more of this in the workplace.

6. There is more than one path to the top of the mountain

When I struggle to learn something (as a beginner) I need very structured teaching to break through that initial plateau. When I have something of a grasp I need to explore and improve.

One of my main instructors taught me to teach good technique first. "Some people will never get the underlying principles, but there is still value in learning the techniques." First concrete, then abstract.

Just learning the rules is the "Shu" stage. Next is "Ha", break the rules. This begins by asking "why?", and figuring out some of the principles.

No technique works in every situation: so we invent or stumble on variations that make different trade-offs. Understanding principle allows us to reconcile variety.

* * *

How do I apply this in an Agile setting? By learning lots of practices and the underlying principles I can craft bespoke approaches from my toolkit. It's not enough to have lots of tools, you need to be able to figure when to use them to best effect.

7. Order and Chaos

Fundamentally there are two kinds of practice in martial arts: choreographed drills (these tend to be cooperative) and competitive play: both the asymmetric self-defence and symmetric sparring.

Pre-arranged drills teach us technique and habit. Reflexive self-defence (where the attack is not known to the defender in advance) simulates the unpredictability of a real encounter.

It is also possible to explore the area in-between.

* * *

In the modern world we develop technical skills and processes, but it is a mistake that we can impose order on everything through planning. We need to develop our intuition and decision-making for when the unexpected occurs.

8. Under stress, you do what you have internalised

Learning techniques cooperatively gives us the building blocks to apply in a conflict situation. Much practice is required so that these techniques happen without "thinking": they must become second nature.

In martial arts, beginners will fall back on one or two favourite techniques. They may be able to do more if the pressure is off, but when the chips are down, they'll revert to what they know and what works for them.

*  *  *

Similarly, it's common to see people who are ostensibly Agile revert to command-and-control or cowboy development approaches or begin design up-front, when placed under stress, or when coaching support is taken away.

Transformation takes time, support, and reinforcement.

9. When in doubt, keep moving

When attacked, our ancestral response will be "fight, flight or freeze".

Freeze is typically the worst when fighting other humans. When you stop moving you become  a "sitting duck". Movement creates possibilities and openings.

* * *

Similarly, in a situation of organisational conflict or challenges, trying out different things, changing it up, can create new possibilities.

If you have done your time learning the rules (Shu) and broken the rules (Ha), you may be ready to forget the rules (Ri). This is the stage of "unthinking competence", whereby your internalised skill allows you to follow your intuition and see what emerges.

Ri is very advanced and should not be confused with being brave and clueless!

10. There are no limits

My journey in the martial arts has felt a bit like peeling an onion: with some effort you scrape off one layer only to discover there's something deeper and a bit juicier underneath. (Sometimes your eyes also water.)

They're called martial arts for a reason. There's craft and science to learning, but there's also opportunity for self-expression through refinement of one's learning and teaching, technical innovation, and execution.

Studying the martial arts has been a wonderful journey for me. Something not to rush, but to savour. Even though I feel I've figured out a thing or two, the more you know the more you become aware of your current limitations, but get ideas about what might help to improve.

* * *

When I first started consciously applying Agile approaches, I thought that they were only suitable to small-scale, already somewhat exceptional teams. Over a decade later my experience in the martial arts gives me hope (and tools) that they can be adapted and applied far more widely.

Saturday, August 29, 2015

Six degrees of separation (or less)

Science communicator Derek Muller explored the history of the six degrees of separation phenomenon in this piece on his video channel, Veratasium.



At the end of the video, he launched an experiment. Within just a few days, whoever can contact Derek via an email chain of people who know each other in real life, will receive a postcard from Derek.

I got contacted in one such chain and now know my "Muller number" is three. It was surprisingly quick, easy, and fun.

Interesting, too, were the people in the chain, and our connections. Here's how it went down.

  1. Jay McCarthy started the chain by emailing me. Jay is an American Computer Science professor and one of the developers of the Racket programming language. We met in person at St Louis at RacketCon 2014. I highly recommend Jay's fabulously entertaining talk. Jay emailed me because, like Derek, I am an Australian.
  2. I reside in Melbourne, Australia. I learned from his Wikipedia entry that Derek holds a PhD in physics education research from the University of Sydney. I decided to email Michelle Sowey, who is from Sydney and connected in academic and education circles. Michelle is the founder of The Philosophy Club, through which she and her husband, David Urbinder, perform amazing philosophical enquiries with school-aged children. My wife, PatchAndi, went to school with David.
  3. Michelle emailed her friend Kylie Sturgess, who hosts the award winning Token Skeptic podcast. Episode 103 is an interview with Derek Muller.
  4. Kylie has also met Derek in person at various science events, and was kind enough to complete the chain!
So we got from Jay to Derek in just four degrees of separation, in roughly 12 hours!

I look forward to seeing Derek's follow-up, and his postcard to Jay.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Fabric mosaic technique - animation

Here's a time-lapse of an experimental fabric-mosaic technique that I'm working on with my wife, PatchAndi, as a possible addition to www.youpatch.com:

Pixelated Frida Kahlo

Those are actual photos of the construction, achieved by sticking pieces of fabric onto a backing piece, color by color.

Here's a simulation of the piece-by-piece construction:


The aggregation algorithm of similarly-colored rectangles is a little different from the original quilt design, available here. Size is roughly A2.


Sunday, January 25, 2015

Why is working harder such a popular management strategy?

The short answer: Working harder gives a short-term performance boost, but leads to a long-term decline in capability.


Organizations that commit to working smarter pay a short-term dip in output, but in the long-term enter into a virtuous cycle: improvement reduces effort for the same results, which is re-invested in further improvement.

Unfortunately, the opposite, vicious cycle is far more common. A decision to cut costs leads to working harder, which leads to a short-term performance boost with an unseen (delayed) trade-off. The decision-maker thinks "I got it right", feels vindicated, and applies linear thinking: more of the same should lead to further gains. This is wrong, but the bad effects -- losses in quality, capability, etc. --  are not be felt for some time. Meanwhile, committing to work "harder, not smarter" crowds out learning and process improvement.

Reference: Repenning and Sternan, Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened [pdf]



Friday, January 23, 2015

Learn or Lose: Agile Coaching and Organizational Survival

by Daniel Prager
The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn. 
― Alvin Toffler 

Introduction

Overview: Change and evolve, or wither and die

For organizations to survive and thrive in the Information Age they must become truly adaptive. This will require a huge cultural transition away from the mechanistic, hierarchical, command-and-control approaches that were highly successful through the recent Industrial Age, but have now expired.

What is needed for survival is a transformation into true Learning Organizations. The essential cultural change is from a rigid focus on performance and risk-avoidance around a fixed (or infrequently changing) business model, to one that embraces continual learning, experiments, and small, typically reversible, changes.

Agile and Lean methods talk about learning and change, but I want to emphasize these facets as the central factor to cultural change. Without embracing ongoing learning and change, one may well upgrade one’s old approaches by cherry-picking elements of the new “Agile” way, but this is likely to only be a short-lived improvement. It is not enough.
 ...

Read the rest of my article on InfoQ

Monday, January 19, 2015

Adding triangles to YouPatch


The Racket Logo
Following my talk at RacketCon 2014 a few participants expressed interest in getting a quilt based on the Racket programming language logo (right).

Since I used Racket extensively both in inventing and developing YouPatch (www.youpatch.com) I thought it would be a nice gesture to make a free quilt design available to members of the Racket community.

However, just running the Racket logo through the YouPatch process (as it stood) made for an unsatisfactory result on two fronts:

  1. The curves of the original design are excessively pixelated
    Original design: 230 pieces
    at a low resolution (right).
  2. YouPatch's aggregation algorithm combines neighboring squares of the same color into larger pieces to reduce the amount of cutting and sewing— a key feature. Unfortunately it did badly in a few cases (especially so on simple logos like this) because it was based on the somewhat simplistic idea of chopping each block repeatedly into quarters. By looking at the original design you can probably see several places where neighboring pieces should have been combined.
So I improved the aggregating algorithm, achieving typically a reduction of 20% in the total number of pieces. [There's a trade-off here against the number of distinct shapes involved. I could get 30%, but we decided to restrict shape dimensions to reduce confusion during construction.]

Improved aggregation: 191 pieces

And I added an option to take a pixelated design and automatically and selectively add half-square triangles to reduce the "stair-casing" effect.

With half-square triangles: 279 pieces

Without the schematics, here's the triangle design in all it's glory:

The Racket Logo as a pixel quilt design with triangles
Racketeers, if you'd like this design free-of-charge, let me know and I'll generate and send you the pdf with all the instructions. You'll still need to buy the fabric and find a friendly quilter. [Try your local modern quilt guild if you don't know one.] 

Let me know what size you'd like: 
  1. Small wall hanging: 32" x 32"
  2. Medium wall hanging: 48" x 48"
  3. Double bed or lap quilt for the couch: 64" x 64"
  4. Queen bed: 80" x 80"
Now, in case you prefer another programming language to Racket, here's a sample of what happens to the logos of some other awesome languages that also have a liking for the greek letter lambda (λ):

Top-to-bottom:   1. original image    2. YouPatch squares   3. YouPatch triangles
At the time of writing the triangle-generating technology has not been built into YouPatch's self-serve features, nor have we finalized pricing.

I think you can see that this facility makes a big difference to logo-style pixelation (simple design, few colors, low-ish resolution), and of course it can be used for non-programming language logos! ;-)

It also can produce interesting arty effects on photographs. Here's the first pixel quilt featuring half-square triangles that we've actually made, featuring my daughter blowing bubbles:

1. Original image  2. YouPatch schematic  3. Actual quilt

The Racket logo is available for free, and we'll be making a triangle option available in 2015 as part of YouPatch, but the technology exists to do it now, so get in touch if you're keen!